(GS2: International relations)
The Asian Century refers to the dominant role that Asian nations are expected to play in the 21st century due to their fast-growing economies and youthful demographics.
Asia’s growth is being powered by China and India, two of the biggest global economies, as well as by smaller neighbors including Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Bangladesh.
By 2030, the world’s 10 biggest economies will be made up largely of today’s current emerging markets, according to global bank Standard Chartered.
Issues of the Asian century:
- The geopolitical and economic rise of Asia coincides with several regional and global developments. These have potential to undermine the stability and prosperity India had hoped an Asian century would bring.
- The withdrawal of the U.S. from much of continental Asia, aggressive rise of China and the Ukraine war appear to have ended the coexistence of Asia.
- Today, Russia and China are trying to undermine the global balance of power. Several regional powers such as Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are in tow.
Asian century and (multi)polarity:
- Multipolar Asia: There are two possibilities, one is a multipolar world with Russia, China, Japan, India and the other is a China-dominated Asia.
- Multipolarity and India’s interest: It can serve India’s interest only if it is underpinned by international law, premised upon respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries.
- Dollar-based trade: Although it is facing serious challenges from Russia and its Asian partners China, Iran, Turkey, India, etc. it will be a matter of concern if the arrangements shift to Yuan.
What is the dilemma created by multipolar Asia before Indian foreign policy establishment?
- New Delhi has consistently campaigned for a multipolar world where key Asian powers have a major role in international politics. Yet it may hesitate to engage the emergent Asian century for various reasons.
- The Indian establishment has a deeply status quoist view of the world order. It believes in a more democratic, orderly and rules-based world order. But, it recognises that major systemic changes could create chaos. Therefore, India likes peaceful and consensual transformation of the system. It is not happening today.
- New Delhi’s biggest fear would be an Asian century without stable multipolarity. Even if it emerges, a multipolar world is most likely to be soon replaced by a bipolar world dominated by the U.S. and China.
- If a bipolar world leads to great power accommodation between the U.S. and China, India’s situation could be worse off. It means the U.S. accepting China’s sphere of influence.
- The Asian century dominated by China may lead to post-Indian South Asia that is under the Chinese sphere of influence, though not entirely inimical to Indian interests.
