Our domestic efforts will need to be bolstered by smart partnerships with others. New relationships are necessary. But, there is a need to keep old partners like Russia by our side.
Six hard realities for the Indian strategic establishment:
Russia-Ukraine war:
- It has impacted the world’s food and energy security. It can lead to global economic recession.
- The nuclear threatfrom Russian leaders is a cause of worry.
- The Strategic alignment between Russia and China is another concern.
China’s aggression:
- China’s aggressive behaviour in the Indo-Pacificmay create disruptions. India is facing that aggression on its border.
- China is also constructing an island in the South China Sea.
Ties with the West being tested:
| Pakistan turmoil:
· There has been no movement in bilateral ties. · Towards the end of the year, Pakistan got a new Army chief. This is the real transition of power in this country. Neighborhood in crisis: · The Sri Lankan economic and political crisis was a major challenge in the neighborhood. India provided humanitarian aid, fuels and medicines. · Engagement with Myanmar has continued in low-key visits. India has sought to not isolate the military regime, unlike the western partners. |
- Delhi is seen as following its interests and not being guided by “shared values”. European partners have criticized India for buying cheap oil from Russia.
- There is an absence of a full time US ambassadorin India for two years.
Engagement with Taliban:
- Delhi had begun the process of re-engagingby sending humanitarian aid. It has made a commitment of USD 80 million for improving the lives of Afghans.
- But, India will not compromise on extremism and rights of minorities and women. The key impact has been the influx of refugeesfrom Myanmar to the north-eastern states through the porous borders.
Six challenges and opportunities for 2023:
Engaging with Russia:
- Increasing closeness between Russia and China is a cause of worry for India. Economic relations have formed the “new strategic basis” for Sino-Russian relations.
- India will try to engage with both Russia and the West, and put its strategic defence and national security interests first.
Dealing with China: Beijing is challenging the status quo, not just in eastern Ladakh but in other sectors along the border like Arunachal.
- As China sees itself as a superpower, there will be more clashes. It will have to be resolved through negotiations.
Ties with the West: Delhi will have to address the concerns of European and American partners. In fact, the G20 preparations will give some opportunity to do that.
G20 as a global stage: New Delhi, has already positioned itself as the “voice of the Global South”. It will seek to put its priorities on the global forum.
- In this context, it will also seek to bring Russia and the West together and end the conflict in Europe. If it manages to do so, it can claim a diplomatic win.
Pakistan’s crucial year: Elections in Pakistan are scheduled for later in 2023. The new civilian government and the Army chief will shape their attitude towards India.
Challenge in the neighborhood: Sri Lanka will continue to demand India’s humanitarian, financial and political attention in the new year.
- India will also be part of political conversation in Maldives.
- In Nepal, Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda has become the Prime Minister. Former PM Oli is holding the keys to the government. This will pose a significant challenge for Delhi. Beijing’s influence is growing in Kathmandu in recent years.
