Recently, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its yearbook a few days back highlighting some worrying trends of the past year in international security.
The expected rise of the global nuclear arsenal was the chief cause of concern among SIPRI experts.
Key findings:
- Military spending Flattened: During 2012-2021, military spending as a percentage of GDP has largely been stable. If anything, the average worldwide trend has been slightly downward.
- Russia leads the charge in absolute numbers of nuclear inventory (5977 against the U.S.’s 5428). However, it is the U.S. that has the largest number of deployed warheads
- The global discourse has created a sense of fear around China’s military modernisation and their upward trend in nuclear weapons development while the thousands of nuclear weapons held by the U.S. don’t seem to attract a similar level of attention.
- Military modernisation by nuclear countries is seen to be a global trend that may result in aggravating security concerns for other countries.
- The SIPRI yearbook has highlighted India as being the top weapons importer during the 2017-2021 period
Key concerns flagged:
- The yearbook mentions the following as worrying indicators of an unstable system:
- low level border clashes between India and Pakistan,
- Civil war in Afghanistan
- Armed conflict in Myanmar
- The marginal downsizing observed in the nuclear arsenal has come mostly from the U.S. and Russia dismantling retired warheads. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised some serious concerns because of the continuous rhetoric from the Russia over possible use of nuclear weapons.
- China’s recent activities surrounding construction of 300 new nuclear missile silos have also been cause of worry. China has stated that they have made “impressive progress” vis-à-vis their nuclear arsenal
- In the subcontinent, India and Pakistan seem to be making gains over their nuclear arsenal (in absolute numbers) while also looking at the development and procurement of newer and more efficient forms of delivery systems
What is the general attitude among countries about existing nuclear and arms related treaties?
- There is a collective belief on dangers of nuclear weapons & need for multilateral agreements.
- Earlier in 2022, the leaders of the P5 countries (China, France, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S.) issued a joint statement affirming the belief that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”.
- The joint statement also highlighted their collective belief that bilateral and multilateral arms control agreements and commitments were indeed important.
- Even though there is upward trend in absolute numbers of arms and nuclear arsenals, the nation states are making sure to remain well within the ambit of what the treaties and agreements ask for.
- The year 2021 also saw the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, 2017 coming into effect. The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and the Missile Technology Control Regimes (MTCR) held their annual meetings despite decision making being limited due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
What is India’s stand on Nuclear disarmament?
- India being a declared nuclear power remains committed to the policy of No First Use (NFU) against nuclear weapon states and non-use against non-nuclear-weapon states.
- India believes that nuclear disarmament can be achieved through a step-by-step process underwritten by a universal commitment and an agreed multilateral framework after meaningful dialogues among all States possessing nuclear weapons, for building trust and confidence.
- The Conference on Disarmament (CD) remains the “world’s single multilateral disarmament negotiating forum” and India supports holding of negotiations on a Comprehensive Nuclear Weapons Convention at the CD.
- India also remains committed to negotiations regarding a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) in the CD
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